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Surprise Jump in Retail Sales

Surprise Jump in Retail Sales

Rob Samtmann | Aug 15, 2024 |

Retail sales rose 1 percent in July, reversing a June slowdown and marking the largest jump in more than two years.

In a recent Washington Post article, Abha Bhattarai reports on how data from the Commerce Department shows Americans are demonstrating strong spending power, fueling a vibrant U.S. economy and easing concerns about a potential downturn.

In a refreshing boost, retail sales surged by 1 percent in July, marking the largest increase in over two years and reversing the slowdown observed in June. This uptick in consumer spending is driven by robust purchases of cars, appliances, and furniture, with notable gains in restaurants, bars, and various retail sectors including groceries, electronics, and health goods.

Walmart, the nation’s largest retailer, also reported unexpectedly strong earnings and has raised its forecasts for the remainder of the year, reflecting ongoing consumer resilience. This optimistic outlook, paired with positive inflation data, has bolstered investor confidence, countering recent fears of an economic slowdown.

Stock markets responded positively to the upbeat retail sales news, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing 330 points, or about 1 percent, on Thursday morning. The U.S. economy continues to demonstrate resilience despite the Federal Reserve’s significant interest rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation, which has decreased from a peak of 9.1 percent to 2.9 percent in July.

While the Federal Reserve’s actions have impacted sectors like housing and manufacturing, leading to a slight increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3 percent, there are encouraging signs. For instance, a drop in weekly unemployment claims suggests that the labor market remains robust. These mixed signals suggest that the economy, while gradually slowing, is still strong enough to potentially prompt the Fed to consider rate cuts in its upcoming September meeting.

Despite the challenges posed by inflation and rising credit card delinquencies among lower- and middle-income households, the overall economic outlook remains positive. High-income households, which significantly drive consumer spending, continue to contribute robustly to the economy. As noted by Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, the wealthiest consumers are playing a crucial role in sustaining economic momentum.

This dynamic is evident in the performance of major retailers like Walmart, where improved sales are partly attributed to increased shopping from high-income households seeking value. The continued strength of consumer spending, particularly from wealthier segments, is a testament to the resilience of the U.S. economy.

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Rob Samtmann

Rob is Managing Principal of Equity Retail Brokers and he specializes in tenant representation and leasing.

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