The anticipation of interest rate cuts in the coming year has sparked considerable debate among investors, especially as the presidential campaign takes center stage. According to Kiplinger’s recent article, “Interest Rates Outlook: Future Decline in Short-Term Rates Complicated by Politics”, the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections suggests the possibility of three rate cuts in 2024. However, the majority of bond investors are unrealistically optimistic, expecting the Fed to initiate six cuts by March and continue with regular adjustments throughout the year.
Fed Chair Powell’s cautious approach adds complexity to these expectations. Powell emphasizes the need to be doubly sure about inflation hitting the 2% target before considering rate cuts. With a reluctance to backtrack and raise rates later, Powell aims for a measured and strategic approach to monetary policy.
Adding another layer of complexity is the looming U.S. presidential campaign, set to go full throttle in the summer and fall. While the Fed refrains from explicitly citing politics in its decisions, the divisive nature of contemporary politics prompts caution. The Fed aims to avoid being a political lightning rod, steering clear of accusations of favoritism. Consequently, predictions suggest rate cuts in May and possibly June, followed by a pause during the July and September meetings, resuming cuts after the November 7 election.
Looking ahead, the expectation is for continued rate cuts through 2025, though not returning rates to zero. Projections hint at the one-month Treasury bill rate falling to approximately 3%, with the bank prime rate settling around 6%, a notable drop from the current 8.5%.
The bond market’s response is critical, with 10-year Treasury notes possibly reaching yields in the high-3% range as certainty grows about the Fed’s actions. The recent decline in the 10-year bond’s yield from 5% to 4% reflects the central bank’s shift away from rate hikes amid signs of cooling inflation and labor market weaknesses. However, if long-term bond rates dip below 4%, a subsequent rise is expected as the economy strengthens, potentially reaching 4.5% or even 5.0%.
30-year fixed mortgages are around 7.0% and 15-year rates are averaging about 6.3%. The cutting of short term interest rates will have a direct positive effect on these rates.
The broader impact on various interest rates is evident. Super-safe money market fund rates have risen above 5%. Home equity lines of credit and short-term consumer loans, such as auto notes, have seen increases, with financing costs for new vehicles hovering around 7.4%.
As the intricate web of economic indicators and political considerations unfolds, investors need to stay vigilant to navigate the dynamic landscape of interest rates in 2024.
